DeVonta Smith’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, DeVonta Smith was 11.6 yards under at home and 4.5 yards over away in 2026, 2 games against 2. The plain averages are 64.0 and 91.0, a difference of 27.0.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
−11.6
away
+4.5
-20020
A −16.1 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
64.0
91.0
6080100
A −27.0 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 53 | 77.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 117 | 95.7 | |
| Sep 28, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 65 | 77.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs CAR | L | 75 | 73.8 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 51%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.