Deshaun Watson’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Deshaun Watson was 45.9 yards under at home and 11.9 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are 192.0 and 246.0, a difference of 54.0.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
−45.9
away
+11.9
-50050100
A −57.8 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
192.0
246.0
150200250300
A −54.0 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ JAX | L | 205 | 264.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ TB | W | 238 | 211.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs CAR | W | 144 | 229.1 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs PIT | W | 268 | 235.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ NYJ | L | 155 | 210.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs BAL | W | 164 | 249.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 308 | 260.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @PIT | L | 324 | 223.8 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.