Deebo Samuel Sr.’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Deebo Samuel Sr. was 7.3 yards over at home and 5.9 yards under away in 2026, 3 games against 1. The plain averages are 45.7 and 21.0, a difference of 24.7. Both games outside the division were at home. Both first-half games were at home.
One game away is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+7.3
away
−5.9
020
plain
45.7
21.0
406080
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs LA (neutral) | W | 48 | 30.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 31 | 34.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs ARI | W | 80 | 42.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DEN | W | 26 | 38.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ SEA | W | 21 | 26.9 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 29%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.