Davante Adams’ receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Davante Adams was 33.9 yards over at home and 17.7 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 2. The plain averages are 95.0 and 84.5, a difference of 10.5. Both second-half games were at home.
2 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+33.9
away
+17.7
050100
A +16.2 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
95.0
84.5
50100150
A +10.5 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs SF (neutral) | L | 26 | 59.4 | |
| Sep 21, 2026 | vs NYG | W | 195 | 49.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ DEN | L | 137 | 51.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 32 | 81.9 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | vs BUF | L | 51 | 65.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs ARI | L | 39 | 68.5 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 45%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.