Daniel Jones’ passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Daniel Jones was 36.3 yards under at home and 46.1 yards under away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 223.3 and 182.3, a difference of 41.1.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
−36.3
away
−46.1
-100-500
A +9.8 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
223.3
182.3
150200250
A +41.1 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs BAL | L | 166 | 248.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ KC | L | 210 | 224.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs HOU | W | 235 | 262.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs WAS (neutral) | W | 143 | 270.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ PIT | L | 267 | 231.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs TEN | L | 269 | 268.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ MIN | L | 108 | 185.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ JAX | L | 144 | 272.0 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 99%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.