Dak Prescott’s passing yards at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Dak Prescott was 31.4 yards over at home and 23.5 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 263.3 and 245.0, a difference of 18.3.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
+31.4
away
+23.5
050100
A +7.9 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
263.3
245.0
200250300
A +18.3 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ NYG | L | 175 | 189.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 279 | 251.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs BAL (neutral) | L | 276 | 232.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 335 | 244.3 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vs TB | L | 316 | 204.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ GB | L | 258 | 209.9 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 212 | 242.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs ARI | L | 195 | 240.6 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.