Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Courtland Sutton was 1.4 yards over at home and 16.6 yards under away in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 35.8 and 19.5, a difference of 16.3.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+1.4
away
−16.6
-20020
A +18.1 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
35.8
19.5
2040
A +16.3 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | @ KC | L | 11 | 33.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs JAX | W | 25 | 50.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LA | W | 46 | 28.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ SF | L | 4 | 34.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ LAC | W | 18 | 36.9 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 19 | 27.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ ARI | W | 45 | 38.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsKC | W | 53 | 31.2 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 26%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.