Christian Watson’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Christian Watson was 40.9 yards over at home and 11.3 yards over away in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 104.0 and 73.0, a difference of 31.0. Both games on a short week were at home.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+40.9
away
+11.3
050100
A +29.6 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
104.0
73.0
50100
A +31.0 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ MIN | L | 147 | 44.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ NYJ | W | 41 | 56.1 | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | vs ATL | L | 96 | 61.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ TB | W | 47 | 64.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs CHI | W | 143 | 59.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs DAL | W | 64 | 72.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ DET | L | 57 | 82.2 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs CAR | W | 113 | 60.4 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 46%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.