Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed running backs, Christian McCaffrey was 5.1 yards under at home and 1.3 yards under away in 2026, 4 games against 2. The plain averages are 53.5 and 53.5, a difference of 0.0. Expected was 3.8 yards higher at home than away. Both first-half games were at home.
2 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
at home
−5.1
away
−1.3
-40-20020
A −3.8 difference in rushing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
53.5
53.5
4060
A 0.0 difference in rushing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs LA (neutral) | W | 68 | 44.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 23 | 68.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs ARI | W | 75 | 60.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DEN | W | 52 | 61.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ SEA | W | 68 | 42.9 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 64 | 43.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ ATL | L | 39 | 66.7 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed running backs in its other 2026 games, plus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for running backs that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s running backs’ rushing yards in his games, 60%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.