Chris Olave’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Chris Olave was 8.2 yards over at home and 16.8 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 3. The plain averages are 89.7 and 103.7, a difference of 14.0.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+8.2
away
+16.8
050
A −8.6 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
89.7
103.7
50100150
A −14.0 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ DET | L | 182 | 87.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ BAL | W | 86 | 100.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LV | L | 107 | 91.0 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | vs ATL | L | 116 | 80.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 46 | 72.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ NYG | W | 43 | 73.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs PIT (neutral) | L | 56 | 73.9 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 56%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.