Chris Godwin Jr.’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Chris Godwin Jr. was 14.2 yards under at home and 10.6 yards under away in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 27.8 and 34.7, a difference of 6.9.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
−14.2
away
−10.6
-40-200
A −3.6 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
27.8
34.7
02040
A −6.9 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CIN | L | 40 | 41.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CLE | L | 46 | 39.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 25 | 34.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs GB | L | 31 | 46.5 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ DAL | W | 37 | 48.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs PIT | L | 37 | 40.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ CAR | W | 27 | 45.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs ATL | W | 0 | 49.1 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 29%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.