CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, CeeDee Lamb was 16.6 yards over at home and 27.7 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 73.3 and 94.3, a difference of 20.9.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+16.6
away
+27.7
050100
A −11.2 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
73.3
94.3
50100150
A −20.9 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ NYG | L | 44 | 55.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 153 | 58.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs BAL (neutral) | L | 112 | 72.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 189 | 71.7 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vs TB | L | 9 | 47.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ GB | L | 70 | 62.8 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 74 | 76.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs ARI | L | 58 | 64.7 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 43%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.