Caleb Williams’ passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Caleb Williams was 31.8 yards over at home and 87.9 yards over away in 2026, 2 games against 3. The plain averages are 223.0 and 273.7, a difference of 50.7.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
+31.8
away
+87.9
050
A −56.1 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
223.0
273.7
150200250300
A −50.7 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CAR | W | 269 | 197.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 138 | 169.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ ATL | W | 305 | 212.8 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs NE | W | 308 | 213.3 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ SEA | W | 247 | 147.1 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 96%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.