C.J. Stroud’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, C.J. Stroud was 49.2 yards over at home and 34.1 yards under away in 2026, 4 games against 2. The plain averages are 281.8 and 214.0, a difference of 67.8. Both division games were away. All 4 games outside the division were at home.
2 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
+49.2
away
−34.1
-50050100
A +83.3 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
281.8
214.0
200250300350
A +67.8 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs BUF | L | 274 | 264.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CIN | L | 353 | 242.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ IND | L | 167 | 228.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DAL | L | 347 | 226.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 261 | 267.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs JAX (neutral) | W | 312 | 248.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs NYG | L | 153 | 196.4 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.