Bryce Young’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Bryce Young was 49.6 yards over at home and 54.2 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 284.3 and 267.0, a difference of 17.3. Expected was 21.9 yards higher at home than away.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
+49.6
away
+54.2
0100
A −4.6 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
284.3
267.0
200250300350
A +17.3 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs CHI | L | 361 | 208.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ ATL | W | 287 | 219.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ CLE | L | 291 | 193.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DET | W | 329 | 281.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 281 | 227.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs TB | L | 163 | 213.7 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ GB | L | 209 | 211.5 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 98%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.