Brock Purdy’s passing yards at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Brock Purdy was 29.9 yards over at home and 45.6 yards over away in 2026, 4 games against 2. The plain averages are 266.5 and 238.5, a difference of 28.0. Expected was 43.7 yards higher at home than away. Both first-half games were at home.
2 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
+29.9
away
+45.6
050
A −15.7 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
266.5
238.5
200250
A +28.0 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs LA (neutral) | W | 205 | 194.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 287 | 218.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs ARI | W | 297 | 226.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DEN | W | 218 | 247.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ SEA | W | 189 | 161.5 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 264 | 253.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ ATL | L | 288 | 224.3 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.