Brian Thomas Jr.’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Brian Thomas Jr. was 3.1 yards over at home and 12.2 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 2. The plain averages are 20.0 and 28.5, a difference of 8.5.
2 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+3.1
away
+12.2
-1001020
A −9.1 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
20.0
28.5
10203040
A −8.5 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs CLE | W | 40 | 15.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ DEN | L | 40 | 14.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs NE | W | 8 | 18.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ CIN | W | 17 | 17.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs PHI (neutral) | W | 0 | 21.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs HOU (neutral) | L | 0 | 23.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs IND | W | 12 | 16.8 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 12%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.