Bo Nix’s passing yards at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Bo Nix was 13.3 yards under at home and 54.4 yards under away in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 200.8 and 172.5, a difference of 28.3.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
−13.3
away
−54.4
-100-500
A +41.1 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
200.8
172.5
150200250
A +28.3 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | @ KC | L | 131 | 238.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs JAX | W | 288 | 254.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LA | W | 186 | 199.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ SF | L | 214 | 219.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ LAC | W | 123 | 216.0 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 107 | 176.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ ARI | W | 222 | 233.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsKC | W | 222 | 226.7 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.