Baker Mayfield’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Baker Mayfield was 85.9 yards under at home and 110.5 yards under away in 2026, 3 games against 2. The plain averages are 133.0 and 140.0, a difference of 7.0. Expected was 31.6 yards lower at home than away.
2 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
−85.9
away
−110.5
-200-1000
A +24.6 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
133.0
140.0
0100200
A −7.0 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CIN | L | 216 | 261.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CLE | L | 182 | 216.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 217 | 172.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ CAR | W | 64 | 239.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs ATL | W | 0 | 267.8 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.