Ashton Jeanty’s rushing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed running backs, Ashton Jeanty was 3.3 yards over at home and 23.6 yards under away in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 49.3 and 35.0, a difference of 14.3.
rushing yards a game over expected
at home
+3.3
away
−23.6
0
A +26.8 difference in rushing yards over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 17 times in 100.
plain
49.3
35.0
50100
A +14.3 difference in rushing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 102 | 54.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ LAC | W | 48 | 63.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ NO | W | 56 | 66.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs KC | L | 58 | 37.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ NE | L | 27 | 47.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs BUF | L | 22 | 45.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs LA | L | 15 | 47.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ NYJ | W | 9 | 57.5 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed running backs in its other 2026 games, plus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for running backs that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s running backs’ rushing yards in his games, 54%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.