Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Amon-Ra St. Brown was 9.2 yards over at home and 28.6 yards over away in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 71.3 and 95.3, a difference of 24.1. Both division games were at home.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+9.2
away
+28.6
050
A −19.4 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
71.3
95.3
50100150
A −24.1 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs NO | W | 67 | 69.7 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | @ BUF | L | 142 | 68.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs NYJ | W | 19 | 56.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ CAR | L | 75 | 57.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ ARI | W | 69 | 73.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs GB | W | 153 | 64.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs MIN | W | 46 | 58.0 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 47%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.