Aaron Rodgers’ passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers was 2.4 yards under at home and 32.0 yards over away in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 230.0 and 246.3, a difference of 16.3. Expected was 18.1 yards higher at home than away.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
−2.4
away
+32.0
050100
A −34.4 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
230.0
246.3
200250
A −16.3 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs ATL | W | 221 | 236.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ NE | L | 187 | 236.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs CIN | W | 292 | 252.5 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ CLE | L | 299 | 197.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs IND | W | 235 | 222.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ TB | W | 253 | 209.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs NO (neutral) | W | 212 | 251.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsCLE | W | 172 | 218.1 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.