A.J. Brown’s receiving yards at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, A.J. Brown was 5.7 yards under at home and 0.0 yards under away in 2026, 1 game against 2. The plain averages are 27.0 and 37.0, a difference of 10.0. Both games outside the division were away.
One game at home is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
−5.7
away
−0.0
-50
plain
27.0
37.0
3040
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | @ SEA | L | 26 | 28.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs NYJ | W | 27 | 32.7 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 48 | 45.2 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 29%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.