USC’s assists at home and away
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Through USC’s game on Mar 11, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, USC was 2.2 assists over at home and 2.7 assists under away over its last 60 games, 28 games against 21. The plain averages are 18.1 and 11.1, a difference of 7.0.
USC’s +4.9 at home vs away over expected ranks 3rd of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games through Mar 11, 2026.
assists a game over expected
at home
+2.2
away
−2.7
-50510
A +4.9 difference in assists over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
18.1
11.1
1020
A +7.0 difference in assists at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | assists | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs New Mexico (neutral) | L | 13 | 16.7 | |
| Dec 4, 2024 | vs Oregon | L | 9 | 14.7 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | @ Washington | W | 12 | 13.0 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs Montana State | W | 18 | 14.9 | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vs Cal State Northridge | W | 18 | 17.5 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs Southern | W | 17 | 18.0 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vs Michigan | L | 19 | 13.0 | |
| Jan 8, 2025 | @ Indiana | L | 15 | 13.7 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | @ Illinois | W | 11 | 13.1 | |
| Jan 14, 2025 | vs Iowa | W | 27 | 16.9 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | vs Wisconsin | L | 13 | 14.1 | |
| Jan 22, 2025 | @ Nebraska | W | 12 | 14.1 | |
| Jan 27, 2025 | vs UCLA | L | 17 | 14.4 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 9 | 14.3 | |
| Feb 4, 2025 | @ Northwestern | L | 15 | 14.5 | |
| Feb 7, 2025 | @ Purdue | L | 10 | 15.1 | |
| Feb 11, 2025 | vs Penn State | W | 23 | 18.2 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | vs Minnesota | L | 14 | 17.0 | |
| Feb 20, 2025 | @ Maryland | L | 13 | 13.0 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | @ Rutgers | L | 10 | 15.2 | |
| Feb 26, 2025 | vs Ohio State | L | 21 | 12.9 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | @Oregon | L | 9 | 13.6 | |
| Mar 5, 2025 | vsWashington | W | 24 | 13.5 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | @UCLA | L | 11 | 13.6 | |
| Mar 12, 2025 | vsRutgers (neutral) | W | 19 | 15.3 | |
| Mar 13, 2025 | vsPurdue (neutral) | L | 12 | 15.6 | |
| Apr 1, 2025 | vs Tulane (neutral) | W | 21 | 17.5 | |
| Apr 3, 2025 | vs Villanova (neutral) | L | 10 | 15.6 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | vs Cal Poly | W | 24 | 17.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs Manhattan | W | 24 | 20.7 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | vs Illinois State (neutral) | W | 20 | 13.9 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vs Troy | W | 23 | 16.0 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs Boise State (neutral) | W | 11 | 13.1 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vs Seton Hall (neutral) | W | 9 | 13.0 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs Arizona State (neutral) | W | 16 | 15.1 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | @Oregon | W | 10 | 13.4 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsWashington | L | 13 | 13.7 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | @ San Diego | W | 15 | 16.7 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs Washington State | W | 15 | 15.0 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs UTSA | W | 18 | 19.1 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vsUUC Santa Cruz | W | 28 | — | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | @Michigan | L | 4 | 11.0 | |
| Jan 5, 2026 | @Michigan State | L | 10 | 12.8 | |
| Jan 9, 2026 | @Minnesota | W | 18 | 14.9 | |
| Jan 13, 2026 | vsMaryland | W | 23 | 16.2 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsPurdue | L | 16 | 14.8 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | vsNorthwestern | L | 13 | 16.5 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @Wisconsin | W | 9 | 13.7 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | @Iowa | L | 8 | 12.1 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsRutgers | W | 16 | 16.5 | |
| Feb 3, 2026 | vsIndiana | W | 14 | 12.7 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | @Penn State | W | 15 | 17.0 | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | @Ohio State | L | 10 | 13.2 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | vsIllinois | L | 16 | 13.7 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsOregon | L | 13 | 14.4 | |
| Feb 24, 2026 | @UCLA | L | 11 | 15.0 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsNebraska | L | 17 | 15.1 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | @Washington | L | 6 | 12.9 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsUCLA | L | 23 | 15.4 | |
| Mar 11, 2026 | vsWashington (neutral) | L | 22 | 12.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 in 2024-25, plus 0.6 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 88% in 2024-25, 88% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- UC Santa Cruz has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.