UC Santa Barbara’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UC Santa Barbara was 5.0 points over at home and 3.6 points under away over its last 60 games, 24 games against 25. The plain averages are 82.3 and 70.0, a difference of 12.4.
UC Santa Barbara’s +8.6 at home vs away over expected ranks 2nd of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
points a game over expected
at home
+5.0
away
−3.6
020
A +8.6 difference in points over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
82.3
70.0
6080100
A +12.4 difference in points at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2024 | vs UC San Diego | L | 76 | 64.0 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | @ UC Davis | L | 60 | 68.8 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vs Green Bay | W | 83 | 81.0 | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | @ Loyola Marymount | L | 58 | 68.5 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ Missouri State | L | 56 | 69.5 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vsWWestcliff | W | 89 | — | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | @ Hawai'i | W | 64 | 70.2 | |
| Jan 9, 2025 | vs Cal State Bakersfield | W | 78 | 75.5 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | @ Cal Poly | W | 75 | 81.2 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | vs UC Riverside | W | 66 | 75.9 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | vsUC Davis | L | 60 | 71.7 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | @UC San Diego | L | 63 | 61.8 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | @ Cal State Fullerton | W | 83 | 74.9 | |
| Jan 30, 2025 | vs Cal State Northridge | L | 71 | 76.2 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | vs Long Beach State | W | 85 | 74.3 | |
| Feb 6, 2025 | @Cal State Bakersfield | W | 81 | 72.4 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | vsHawai'i | W | 76 | 72.4 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | @ UC Irvine | L | 60 | 65.7 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | @UC Riverside | L | 69 | 72.9 | |
| Feb 20, 2025 | vsCal State Fullerton | W | 86 | 77.6 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @Long Beach State | W | 58 | 73.1 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | vsCal Poly | W | 96 | 82.9 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | @Cal State Northridge | L | 77 | 72.9 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | vsUC Irvine | L | 88 | 67.0 | |
| Mar 12, 2025 | vsCal State Bakersfield (neutral) | W | 71 | 74.5 | |
| Mar 13, 2025 | vsCal State Northridge (neutral) | W | 78 | 74.3 | |
| Mar 14, 2025 | vsUC San Diego (neutral) | L | 51 | 64.0 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vsSSan Francisco State | W | 98 | — | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs San José State | W | 85 | 77.4 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | @ Sacramento State | W | 92 | 80.7 | |
| Nov 17, 2025 | vsLoyola Marymount | L | 74 | 74.0 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Nevada | L | 64 | 69.0 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vsNNobel | W | 84 | — | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Lehigh (neutral) | W | 72 | 79.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Seattle U (neutral) | W | 74 | 67.4 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | vsLong Beach State | W | 84 | 79.0 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsCal State Bakersfield | W | 109 | 82.5 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Utah Valley (neutral) | L | 53 | 74.1 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | @Green Bay | L | 64 | 74.5 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | vs Portland | W | 79 | 77.7 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | @Cal State Fullerton | L | 84 | 79.0 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @Cal State Northridge | L | 65 | 81.1 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vsUC Davis | L | 86 | 76.5 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @Cal State Bakersfield | W | 75 | 82.1 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsHawai'i | W | 77 | 73.0 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | vsCal Poly | W | 107 | 84.4 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Long Beach State | W | 74 | 77.1 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | @UC San Diego | W | 62 | 70.1 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsCal State Fullerton | W | 83 | 81.6 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @UC Davis | L | 75 | 74.6 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsUC Irvine | W | 84 | 69.9 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | @UC Riverside | W | 76 | 76.5 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @Cal Poly | L | 79 | 83.6 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | vsCal State Northridge | L | 83 | 82.6 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @Hawai'i | L | 75 | 70.5 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | vsUC Riverside | W | 70 | 79.5 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @UC Irvine | L | 60 | 68.8 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsUC San Diego | L | 63 | 72.6 | |
| Mar 11, 2026 | vsUC Davis (neutral) | L | 73 | 76.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vsSSan Francisco State | W | 85 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2024-25, plus 1.4 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 90% in 2024-25, 90% in 2025-26, NaN% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Westcliff, San Francisco State, Nobel, San Francisco State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.