UC Riverside’s turnovers in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UC Riverside was 0.9 turnovers under in a conference game and 3.1 turnovers over in a nonconference game over its last 60 games, 41 games against 15. The plain averages are 10.7 and 13.3, a difference of 2.6.
UC Riverside’s −4.0 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 77th of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
turnovers a game over expected
in a conference game
−0.9
in a nonconference game
+3.1
-50510
A −4.0 difference in turnovers over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
10.7
13.3
5101520
A −2.6 difference in turnovers in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 3 times in 100.
The games
in a conference gamein a nonconference game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | turnovers | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Idaho | L | 12 | 9.2 | |
| Dec 5, 2024 | @ Cal State Northridge | W | 16 | 12.2 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Cal State Fullerton | W | 9 | 8.9 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vsSSt. Francis (IL) | W | 9 | — | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vs Montana State | W | 10 | 8.8 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ UNLV | L | 15 | 11.0 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs St. Thomas | W | 17 | 10.8 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | @ Long Beach State | W | 6 | 10.0 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | @ UC Irvine | L | 10 | 10.9 | |
| Jan 9, 2025 | vs Hawai'i | L | 9 | 7.2 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | @ UC Santa Barbara | L | 9 | 9.6 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | vs UC San Diego | W | 14 | 12.4 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | vsUC Irvine | W | 9 | 10.4 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | @ Cal State Bakersfield | W | 11 | 10.8 | |
| Jan 30, 2025 | vs UC Davis | W | 11 | 11.9 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | vs Cal Poly | W | 11 | 11.9 | |
| Feb 6, 2025 | @UC San Diego | L | 12 | 13.1 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | vsCal State Bakersfield | W | 10 | 10.3 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | @UC Davis | L | 5 | 12.8 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | vsUC Santa Barbara | W | 10 | 8.9 | |
| Feb 20, 2025 | vsLong Beach State | W | 11 | 9.2 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @Cal Poly | L | 12 | 12.5 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | @Hawai'i | W | 7 | 7.9 | |
| Mar 6, 2025 | vsCal State Northridge | W | 9 | 12.0 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | @Cal State Fullerton | W | 7 | 9.6 | |
| Mar 13, 2025 | vsCal Poly (neutral) | L | 10 | 12.3 | |
| Mar 18, 2025 | @ Santa Clara | L | 13 | 10.7 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | vsLLa Sierra | W | 5 | — | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | @ North Dakota | W | 19 | 13.7 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 13 | 13.7 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsNorth Dakota | L | 21 | 13.1 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ California Baptist | L | 22 | 11.0 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | @ San Diego | W | 10 | 13.6 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs Grambling | W | 12 | 13.1 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Utah Tech | L | 11 | 11.3 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | @UC Irvine | L | 10 | 13.3 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @Cal Poly | W | 5 | 12.9 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @ BYU | L | 16 | 12.6 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | vsSStanton | W | 7 | — | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @St. Thomas | L | 13 | 12.6 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | @ UCLA | L | 21 | 12.8 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vsHawai'i | L | 11 | 11.9 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @Cal State Bakersfield | L | 16 | 12.4 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsUC San Diego | L | 11 | 11.3 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @Long Beach State | L | 6 | 12.6 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsCal State Fullerton | W | 16 | 13.5 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | vsUC Irvine | L | 14 | 12.6 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @UC Davis | L | 12 | 13.8 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vsLong Beach State | W | 13 | 11.7 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsCal Poly | L | 17 | 11.7 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @Cal State Fullerton | L | 9 | 14.4 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @Cal State Northridge | L | 13 | 12.5 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | vsUC Santa Barbara | L | 16 | 10.8 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @UC San Diego | L | 10 | 11.8 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | vsCal State Bakersfield | W | 11 | 12.2 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsUC Davis | L | 15 | 13.1 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @UC Santa Barbara | L | 11 | 11.5 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsCal State Northridge | W | 5 | 12.5 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | @Hawai'i | L | 9 | 12.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vsLLa Verne | W | 7 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.3 in 2024-25, minus 0.3 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% in 2024-25, 81% in 2025-26, NaN% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- St. Francis (IL), La Sierra, Stanton, La Verne have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.