St. Thomas’ assists at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, St. Thomas was 3.2 assists over at home and 1.8 assists under away over its last 60 games, 22 games against 27. The plain averages are 19.5 and 13.1, a difference of 6.4.
St. Thomas’ +5.0 at home vs away over expected ranks 2nd of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
assists a game over expected
at home
+3.2
away
−1.8
-50510
A +5.0 difference in assists over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
19.5
13.1
1020
A +6.4 difference in assists at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | assists | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2024 | @ Northern Colorado | W | 10 | 10.8 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Montana | W | 18 | 13.5 | |
| Dec 13, 2024 | vs Western Michigan | W | 17 | 17.5 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vsCCrown | W | 22 | — | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ Bowling Green | W | 15 | 15.7 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ UC Riverside | L | 7 | 14.5 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | @ North Dakota State | W | 11 | 12.8 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | @ North Dakota | W | 13 | 14.7 | |
| Jan 8, 2025 | vs South Dakota State | W | 18 | 13.6 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | vs South Dakota | W | 22 | 17.0 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | vs Denver | W | 12 | 14.2 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | @ Omaha | L | 12 | 14.4 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | @ Kansas City | W | 11 | 12.9 | |
| Jan 29, 2025 | vs Oral Roberts | W | 23 | 16.1 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | vsNorth Dakota State | W | 19 | 13.5 | |
| Feb 6, 2025 | @South Dakota State | L | 10 | 12.9 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | @Denver | W | 12 | 13.0 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | vsOmaha | W | 18 | 15.3 | |
| Feb 19, 2025 | @South Dakota | L | 14 | 16.3 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @Oral Roberts | L | 11 | 15.7 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | vsNorth Dakota | W | 22 | 15.4 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | vsKansas City | W | 11 | 14.1 | |
| Mar 6, 2025 | vsDenver (neutral) | W | 14 | 13.5 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | vsNorth Dakota (neutral) | W | 16 | 15.1 | |
| Mar 9, 2025 | vsOmaha (neutral) | L | 10 | 15.1 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | @ Saint Mary's | L | 13 | 13.4 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Army | W | 18 | 17.1 | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | @ Washington State | L | 13 | 14.2 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs Green Bay | W | 21 | 16.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Southeast Missouri State | W | 12 | 13.4 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | vsNorthern Colorado (neutral) | W | 12 | 12.8 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Cal State Fullerton (neutral) | L | 14 | 18.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ Portland | W | 18 | 18.1 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsLLawrence | W | 27 | — | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | @ Montana State | L | 15 | 13.2 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs Weber State | W | 19 | 16.7 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | vsSSaint John's (MN) | W | 12 | — | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @ UNC Asheville | W | 12 | 15.2 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsUC Riverside | W | 22 | 16.3 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vsNNorth Central | W | 23 | — | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsDenver | W | 20 | 15.6 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | vsSouth Dakota | W | 28 | 15.8 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @Oral Roberts | W | 10 | 15.2 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @North Dakota | W | 15 | 17.9 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @North Dakota State | L | 14 | 16.6 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | vsSouth Dakota State | W | 15 | 16.6 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @South Dakota | W | 14 | 15.5 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vsNorth Dakota | L | 22 | 18.7 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vsKansas City | W | 27 | 18.6 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | @South Dakota State | W | 10 | 15.8 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsOral Roberts | W | 9 | 16.5 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | @Omaha | L | 21 | 16.0 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @Kansas City | W | 23 | 17.7 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @Denver | L | 13 | 14.8 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | vsNorth Dakota State | W | 23 | 17.2 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsOmaha | W | 19 | 17.3 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | vsSouth Dakota State (neutral) | W | 14 | 16.1 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsNorth Dakota (neutral) | L | 16 | 18.5 | |
| Mar 17, 2026 | @ Seattle U | L | 8 | 14.3 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ Presbyterian | W | 16 | 16.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 in 2024-25, plus 0.6 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 88% in 2024-25, 88% in 2025-26, 100% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Crown, Lawrence, Saint John's (MN), North Central have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.