South Carolina State’s turnovers at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, South Carolina State was 2.1 turnovers under at home and 1.9 turnovers over away over its last 60 games, 18 games against 32. The plain averages are 11.9 and 15.1, a difference of 3.2. All 3 ranked opponents were away.
South Carolina State’s −4.0 at home vs away over expected ranks 104th of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
turnovers a game over expected
at home
−2.1
away
+1.9
-50510
A −4.0 difference in turnovers over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
11.9
15.1
510152025
A −3.2 difference in turnovers at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | turnovers | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs IU Indianapolis (neutral) | W | 10 | 11.1 | |
| Nov 27, 2024 | @ Marshall | L | 12 | 12.8 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ Xavier | L | 17 | 13.2 | |
| Dec 5, 2024 | vs Samford | L | 12 | 15.1 | |
| Dec 9, 2024 | vs Charleston Southern | W | 5 | 10.3 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | @ Furman | L | 9 | 12.2 | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | @ South Carolina Upstate | W | 17 | 12.6 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ Northern Kentucky | L | 16 | 13.7 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ Georgia | L | 15 | 13.3 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | @ Morgan State | W | 12 | 12.8 | |
| Jan 6, 2025 | @ Coppin State | W | 18 | 14.3 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | vs Delaware State | L | 10 | 14.1 | |
| Jan 13, 2025 | vs Maryland Eastern Shore | W | 12 | 10.8 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | @ North Carolina Central | L | 13 | 14.0 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | @ Norfolk State | L | 17 | 13.0 | |
| Feb 3, 2025 | @ Howard | W | 17 | 12.0 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | vsMMid Atlantic Christian | W | 20 | — | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | vsMorgan State | W | 9 | 12.4 | |
| Feb 17, 2025 | vsCoppin State | W | 10 | 14.2 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @Delaware State | W | 21 | 13.9 | |
| Feb 24, 2025 | @Maryland Eastern Shore | W | 20 | 10.9 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | vsNorfolk State | W | 11 | 12.7 | |
| Mar 3, 2025 | vsHoward | W | 10 | 11.9 | |
| Mar 6, 2025 | vsNorth Carolina Central | W | 11 | 13.6 | |
| Mar 12, 2025 | vsCoppin State (neutral) | W | 15 | 14.2 | |
| Mar 14, 2025 | vsNorth Carolina Central (neutral) | W | 14 | 13.7 | |
| Mar 15, 2025 | vsNorfolk State (neutral) | L | 15 | 12.8 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | @ Louisville | L | 25 | 13.7 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | @Samford | L | 12 | 11.8 | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | @ North Carolina A&T | L | 24 | 11.5 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | @ Charleston | L | 12 | 12.3 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vs Chattanooga | L | 10 | 11.5 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ South Dakota | L | 12 | 13.9 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | @ Missouri | L | 12 | 14.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Winthrop | L | 14 | 13.9 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @ Bethune-Cookman | L | 13 | 13.1 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | @Charleston Southern | L | 14 | 11.5 | |
| Dec 12, 2025 | @ Queens University | L | 14 | 13.2 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | vsSouth Carolina Upstate | L | 12 | 12.9 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vsBBrewton Parker | W | 16 | — | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | @ South Carolina | L | 11 | 13.1 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | @ Tennessee | L | 9 | 14.2 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsHoward | W | 21 | 14.2 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @Morgan State | L | 18 | 12.6 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | @Coppin State | W | 12 | 13.8 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsNorfolk State | L | 14 | 13.4 | |
| Jan 20, 2026 | vsMMid Atlantic Christian | W | 16 | — | |
| Jan 26, 2026 | vsDelaware State | W | 11 | 13.8 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | vsMaryland Eastern Shore | W | 10 | 12.8 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @Howard | L | 16 | 15.0 | |
| Feb 16, 2026 | vsCoppin State | L | 10 | 13.5 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | vsNorth Carolina Central | W | 9 | 14.0 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @Norfolk State | L | 22 | 13.4 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | vsMorgan State | L | 9 | 12.7 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Maryland Eastern Shore | L | 16 | 13.0 | |
| Mar 2, 2026 | @Delaware State | W | 11 | 14.3 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | @North Carolina Central | W | 11 | 14.4 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | vsNorfolk State (neutral) | W | 15 | 13.5 | |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vsHoward (neutral) | L | 18 | 14.7 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vsMMorris | W | 14 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.3 in 2024-25, minus 0.3 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% in 2024-25, 81% in 2025-26, NaN% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Mid Atlantic Christian, Brewton Parker, Mid Atlantic Christian, Morris have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.