Saint Peter's’ 3-point attempts in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Saint Peter's was 1.6 3-point attempts under in a conference game and NaN 3-point attempts over in a nonconference game over its last 60 games, 42 games against 16. The plain averages are 20.8 and 25.4, a difference of 4.6.
Saint Peter's’ NaN in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 1st of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
3-point attempts a game over expected
A NaN difference in 3-point attempts over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −4.6 difference in 3-point attempts in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3-point attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2024 | vs Fairfield (neutral) | W | 13 | 18.8 | |
| Mar 21, 2024 | vs Tennessee (neutral) | L | 24 | 19.5 | |
| Nov 4, 2024 | @ Seton Hall | L | 20 | 19.7 | |
| Nov 8, 2024 | @ UMass Lowell | L | 26 | 20.6 | |
| Nov 11, 2024 | @ Rutgers | L | 27 | 22.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ UMBC | W | 29 | 21.0 | |
| Nov 20, 2024 | vsSSaint Elizabeth | W | 23 | — | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | @ Fairleigh Dickinson | W | 18 | 20.7 | |
| Dec 3, 2024 | @ Duquesne | W | 22 | 17.2 | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | vs Manhattan | L | 24 | 25.0 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ Iona | L | 22 | 22.1 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Delaware | W | 18 | 20.8 | |
| Jan 3, 2025 | vs Quinnipiac | L | 21 | 21.8 | |
| Jan 10, 2025 | @ Niagara | L | 18 | 20.8 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | @ Canisius | W | 22 | 22.5 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | vs Marist | L | 17 | 18.3 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @ Sacred Heart | W | 18 | 24.9 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | vs Merrimack | L | 24 | 18.4 | |
| Jan 31, 2025 | @ Rider | L | 21 | 22.2 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | vs Mount St. Mary's | L | 28 | 26.4 | |
| Feb 6, 2025 | @ Siena | L | 15 | 18.2 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | @Manhattan | L | 26 | 24.6 | |
| Feb 14, 2025 | vsFairfield | W | 17 | 19.7 | |
| Feb 16, 2025 | vsRider | W | 22 | 22.3 | |
| Feb 21, 2025 | @Mount St. Mary's | L | 28 | 26.2 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | vsSacred Heart | W | 21 | 24.9 | |
| Feb 28, 2025 | @Quinnipiac | L | 15 | 22.0 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | @Marist | W | 14 | 18.3 | |
| Mar 6, 2025 | vsNiagara | L | 22 | 20.7 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | vsCanisius | W | 26 | 22.4 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | @Seton Hall | L | 23 | 20.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsFairleigh Dickinson | W | 26 | 22.6 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @ VCU | L | 24 | 19.7 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @Delaware | L | 32 | 25.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsUMass Lowell | W | 34 | 20.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Dartmouth | L | 24 | 22.8 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vsCanisius | W | 25 | 24.5 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsNiagara | W | 20 | 22.8 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @ Georgetown | L | 29 | 22.7 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | vsCCentenary (NJ) | W | 36 | — | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | @Fairfield | W | 21 | 21.4 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vsMarist | W | 22 | 19.6 | |
| Jan 9, 2026 | @Mount St. Mary's | L | 31 | 25.4 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vsMerrimack | W | 13 | 19.1 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | @Quinnipiac | W | 16 | 22.2 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsRider | W | 18 | 23.0 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vsIona | W | 15 | 25.6 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Merrimack | L | 22 | 18.4 | |
| Jan 30, 2026 | vsMount St. Mary's | W | 28 | 25.7 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | @Rider | L | 28 | 22.2 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @Manhattan | W | 23 | 24.3 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsSiena | W | 15 | 22.7 | |
| Feb 13, 2026 | @Sacred Heart | L | 21 | 27.2 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | vsFairfield | W | 16 | 21.8 | |
| Feb 20, 2026 | @Iona | L | 30 | 24.5 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @Siena | L | 20 | 22.3 | |
| Feb 27, 2026 | vsManhattan | W | 20 | 24.6 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @Marist | W | 17 | 19.8 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vsFairfield (neutral) | L | 19 | 21.6 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @Seton Hall | L | 23 | NaN |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.0 in 2023-24, plus 0.1 in 2024-25, plus 0.1 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 91% in 2023-24, 91% in 2024-25, 92% in 2025-26, NaN% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Saint Elizabeth, Centenary (NJ) have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.