Saint Mary's’ 3-pointers made at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Saint Mary's was 1.7 3-pointers made over at home and 1.6 3-pointers made under away in 2025-26, 16 games against 10. The plain averages are 10.0 and 6.4, a difference of 3.6.
Saint Mary's’ +3.4 at home vs away over expected ranks 2nd of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side in 2025-26.
3-pointers made a game over expected
at home
+1.7
away
−1.6
05
A +3.4 difference in 3-pointers made over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
10.0
6.4
51015
A +3.6 difference in 3-pointers made at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3-pointers made | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | vs St. Thomas | W | 11 | 8.1 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Chattanooga | W | 8 | 9.6 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vs Ohio | W | 11 | 7.9 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | vs North Texas | W | 9 | 7.1 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vs Arkansas State | W | 8 | 9.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsUUC Merced | W | 12 | — | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs Wichita State (neutral) | W | 2 | 7.4 | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | vs Virginia Tech (neutral) | W | 6 | 7.2 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Vanderbilt (neutral) | L | 7 | 7.5 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ Davidson | W | 3 | 7.3 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs Boise State (neutral) | L | 5 | 7.9 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 6 | 8.5 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | vs Northern Iowa | W | 4 | 7.5 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ Loyola Marymount | W | 7 | 7.6 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | @ Pepperdine | W | 6 | 9.3 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Portland | W | 10 | 9.8 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vs Seattle U | W | 9 | 7.2 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 14 | 8.0 | |
| Jan 13, 2026 | @ San Francisco | W | 8 | 7.7 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @ Santa Clara | L | 4 | 7.6 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | vs Oregon State | W | 8 | 8.3 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Portland | W | 9 | 9.6 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @ Gonzaga | L | 6 | 7.5 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | vs San Diego | W | 11 | 7.9 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsSan Francisco | W | 9 | 7.8 | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | vsPepperdine | W | 13 | 9.0 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @ Pacific | W | 8 | 8.3 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | @Seattle U | W | 3 | 7.4 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @Washington State | W | 10 | 8.1 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | vsSanta Clara | W | 11 | 7.4 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsGonzaga | W | 16 | 7.1 | |
| Mar 9, 2026 | vsSanta Clara (neutral) | L | 6 | 7.6 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | vs Texas A&M (neutral) | L | 10 | 8.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- UC Merced has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.