Portland State’s points allowed at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Portland State was 6.4 points under at home and 1.7 points over away over its last 60 games, 22 games against 27. The plain averages are 61.3 and 74.1, a difference of 12.8.
Portland State’s −8.1 at home vs away over expected ranks 104th of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
points allowed a game over expected
at home
−6.4
away
+1.7
-20020
A −8.1 difference in points allowed over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
61.3
74.1
406080
A −12.8 difference in points allowed at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs St. Thomas (neutral) | L | 91 | 76.6 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs Wofford (neutral) | W | 74 | 72.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Utah Tech | W | 68 | 67.5 | |
| Dec 4, 2024 | @ Seattle U | L | 91 | 69.2 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Denver | L | 68 | 66.0 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vsNNorthwest Indian | W | 48 | — | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | @ Pacific | W | 75 | 69.2 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ Cal State Bakersfield | W | 58 | 72.9 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vsWWalla Walla | W | 39 | — | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | @ Sacramento State | L | 56 | 64.7 | |
| Jan 9, 2025 | vs Eastern Washington | W | 59 | 68.0 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | vs Idaho | W | 63 | 70.5 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | @ Northern Colorado | L | 72 | 79.4 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @ Northern Arizona | W | 69 | 71.6 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | vs Weber State | W | 56 | 66.5 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | vs Idaho State | W | 59 | 69.9 | |
| Jan 30, 2025 | @ Montana | L | 92 | 74.8 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | @ Montana State | L | 74 | 71.2 | |
| Feb 6, 2025 | @Idaho | W | 69 | 73.1 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | @Eastern Washington | L | 72 | 70.0 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | vsNorthern Arizona | W | 46 | 70.2 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | vsNorthern Colorado | W | 71 | 76.6 | |
| Feb 20, 2025 | @Idaho State | L | 82 | 71.3 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @Weber State | L | 60 | 69.2 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | vsMontana State | W | 52 | 69.7 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | vsMontana | W | 76 | 72.9 | |
| Mar 3, 2025 | vsSacramento State | W | 56 | 61.8 | |
| Mar 10, 2025 | vsIdaho (neutral) | L | 80 | 70.9 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @ Stanford | L | 89 | 76.6 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vsNNorthwest Indian | W | 74 | — | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @ San Francisco | L | 80 | 73.2 | |
| Nov 17, 2025 | vsCal State Bakersfield | W | 80 | 65.5 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vsEEvergreen State | W | 61 | — | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | @Utah Tech | W | 63 | 73.8 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | @ South Dakota | W | 71 | 72.9 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Omaha | L | 60 | 67.4 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vsGGeorge Fox | W | 50 | — | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | @ Colorado | L | 84 | 80.3 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Tulane | L | 63 | 71.2 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | @Weber State | W | 90 | 74.1 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @Idaho State | W | 87 | 69.2 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsSacramento State | W | 69 | 71.6 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vsNorthern Colorado | W | 73 | 74.0 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsNorthern Arizona | W | 52 | 63.3 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | @Eastern Washington | W | 61 | 75.9 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Idaho | W | 66 | 72.2 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vsMontana | L | 64 | 70.2 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsMontana State | W | 54 | 70.6 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | vsIdaho State | W | 65 | 68.1 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @Sacramento State | W | 73 | 74.0 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | @Northern Arizona | W | 68 | 64.8 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @Northern Colorado | L | 77 | 76.3 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | vsIdaho | W | 67 | 69.6 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsEastern Washington | L | 67 | 72.9 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @Montana State | L | 84 | 71.2 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Montana | L | 74 | 72.1 | |
| Mar 2, 2026 | vsWeber State | W | 60 | 73.5 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsIdaho State (neutral) | W | 78 | 68.5 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vsMontana (neutral) | L | 75 | 70.7 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | vsLLewis & Clark | W | 59 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.5 in 2024-25, minus 1.4 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 90% in 2024-25, 90% in 2025-26, NaN% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Northwest Indian, Walla Walla, Northwest Indian, Evergreen State, George Fox, Lewis & Clark have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.