Penn State’s rebounds vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Penn State was 4.1 rebounds over vs a ranked opponent and NaN rebounds over vs an unranked opponent over its last 60 games, 12 games against 48. The plain averages are 30.1 and 27.7, a difference of 2.4. All 6 neutral-site games were vs an unranked opponent. All 19 nonconference games were vs an unranked opponent.
Penn State’s NaN vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 1st of the 83 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
rebounds a game over expected
A NaN difference in rebounds over expected vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +2.4 difference in rebounds vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up 19 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rebounds | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2024 | vs Purdue Fort Wayne | W | 34 | 35.1 | |
| Nov 25, 2024 | vs Fordham (neutral) | W | 37 | 32.6 | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | vs Clemson (neutral) | L | 28 | 28.6 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs Buffalo | W | 31 | 36.1 | |
| Dec 5, 2024 | vs Purdue | W | 26 | 27.0 | |
| Dec 10, 2024 | @ Rutgers | L | 29 | 31.2 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vs Coppin State | W | 43 | 35.6 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ Drexel | W | 34 | 29.7 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs Pennsylvania | W | 38 | 33.7 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | vs Northwestern | W | 27 | 30.1 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs Indiana | L | 26 | 29.8 | |
| Jan 8, 2025 | @ Illinois | L | 31 | 28.4 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs Oregon | L | 32 | 29.4 | |
| Jan 15, 2025 | @ Michigan State | L | 30 | 26.4 | |
| Jan 20, 2025 | vsRutgers | W | 20 | 32.4 | |
| Jan 24, 2025 | @ Iowa | L | 33 | 32.2 | |
| Jan 27, 2025 | @ Michigan | L | 29 | 28.8 | |
| Jan 30, 2025 | vs Ohio State | L | 19 | 30.2 | |
| Feb 4, 2025 | vs Minnesota | L | 28 | 30.5 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | @ UCLA | L | 31 | 26.9 | |
| Feb 11, 2025 | @ USC | L | 22 | 28.0 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | vs Washington | L | 31 | 31.2 | |
| Feb 19, 2025 | vs Nebraska | W | 23 | 31.6 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @Minnesota | W | 33 | 29.5 | |
| Feb 26, 2025 | @Indiana | L | 20 | 29.5 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | vs Maryland | L | 40 | 29.6 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | W | 33 | 29.3 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | vs Fairfield | W | 38 | 30.2 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ New Haven | W | 32 | 29.3 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vs Navy | W | 30 | 29.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs La Salle (neutral) | W | 22 | 28.4 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vs Harvard | W | 25 | 27.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Providence (neutral) | L | 39 | 27.4 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vs Boston University | W | 25 | 28.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Sacred Heart | W | 37 | 31.8 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vs Campbell | W | 26 | 29.0 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | @Indiana | L | 17 | 25.8 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vsMichigan State | L | 26 | 22.0 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs Pittsburgh (neutral) | L | 27 | 25.7 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vs North Carolina Central | W | 22 | 34.1 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsIllinois | L | 29 | 24.0 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | vsMichigan | L | 38 | 23.1 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @Purdue | L | 27 | 22.0 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | vsUCLA | L | 21 | 26.5 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @Maryland | L | 18 | 25.8 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | vsWisconsin | L | 31 | 27.8 | |
| Jan 26, 2026 | @Ohio State | L | 29 | 24.2 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | @Northwestern | L | 18 | 27.5 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vsMinnesota | W | 22 | 26.6 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @Michigan | L | 19 | 23.4 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | vsUSC | L | 27 | 28.0 | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | @Washington | W | 29 | 25.6 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @Oregon | L | 23 | 26.7 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | vsRutgers | L | 22 | 29.6 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @Nebraska | L | 30 | 26.8 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsIowa | W | 23 | 22.9 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | vsOhio State | L | 12 | 25.8 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | @Rutgers | L | 34 | 28.2 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vsNorthwestern (neutral) | L | 21 | 27.7 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs Canisius | W | 44 | NaN |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 in 2024-25, plus 0.4 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 86% in 2024-25, 87% in 2025-26, NaN% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.