Mercer’s points at home and away
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Through Mercer’s game on Mar 7, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Mercer was 7.4 points over at home and 4.0 points under away in 2025-26, 12 games against 16. The plain averages are 92.4 and 74.2, a difference of 18.2.
Mercer’s +11.3 at home vs away over expected ranks 3rd of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side in 2025-26 through Mar 7.
points a game over expected
at home
+7.4
away
−4.0
-20020
A +11.3 difference in points over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
92.4
74.2
6080100120
A +18.2 difference in points at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | @ Tennessee | L | 61 | 63.8 | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | vsLLaGrange | W | 101 | — | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs Lipscomb | W | 92 | 80.3 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Winthrop | L | 69 | 79.9 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Eastern Kentucky | W | 95 | 83.1 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs App State | W | 75 | 73.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Elon | W | 91 | 80.5 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vs Georgia State | W | 78 | 81.3 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsOOglethorpe | W | 100 | — | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @ Clemson | L | 63 | 64.8 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | @ UCF | L | 63 | 75.6 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Washington State | L | 78 | 76.9 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vsBBaptist (Fl) | W | 122 | — | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | @ Furman | L | 72 | 75.4 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @ East Tennessee State | L | 71 | 74.7 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | vs The Citadel | W | 101 | 83.0 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs Wofford | W | 109 | 82.0 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @ VMI | W | 77 | 85.5 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @ UNC Greensboro | W | 102 | 82.8 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | vs Western Carolina | W | 88 | 82.6 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Wofford | L | 77 | 81.5 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vsUNC Greensboro | W | 95 | 85.8 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsVMI | W | 95 | 87.0 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @ Chattanooga | L | 75 | 81.4 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @ Samford | L | 49 | 81.2 | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | vsFurman | W | 69 | 78.2 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @The Citadel | W | 70 | 82.4 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | vsChattanooga | L | 90 | 83.0 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsSamford | W | 89 | 81.2 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | @Western Carolina | L | 74 | 80.9 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsEast Tennessee State | W | 82 | 76.6 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsWestern Carolina (neutral) | L | 73 | 82.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 90% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- LaGrange, Oglethorpe, Baptist (Fl) have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.