Jackson State’s free throw attempts in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Through Jackson State’s game on Mar 11, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Jackson State was 2.8 free throw attempts over in a conference game and 4.2 free throw attempts under in a nonconference game over its last 60 games, 41 games against 19. The plain averages are 25.4 and 15.6, a difference of 9.9. All 6 ranked opponents were in a nonconference game. Both top-10 opponents were in a nonconference game. All 5 games without Dorian McMillian were in a conference game.
Jackson State’s +7.0 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 1st of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games through Mar 11, 2026.
free throw attempts a game over expected
A +7.0 difference in free throw attempts over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up once in 100.
A +9.9 difference in free throw attempts in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | free throw attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2024 | @ Saint Louis | L | 5 | 16.8 | |
| Dec 5, 2024 | @ Arkansas State | L | 24 | 22.2 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ Iowa State | L | 13 | 17.8 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | @ UTEP | L | 26 | 21.4 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | vs Akron (neutral) | L | 17 | 21.6 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | @ California Baptist | L | 17 | 18.7 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | @ Alcorn State | W | 23 | 17.8 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | vs Alabama State | W | 27 | 23.4 | |
| Jan 13, 2025 | vs Alabama A&M | W | 39 | 26.7 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @ Prairie View A&M | W | 34 | 22.7 | |
| Jan 20, 2025 | @ Texas Southern | L | 23 | 21.6 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | vs Bethune-Cookman | W | 30 | 20.9 | |
| Jan 27, 2025 | vs Florida A&M | L | 29 | 23.9 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | @ Grambling | W | 14 | 18.6 | |
| Feb 3, 2025 | @ Southern | L | 32 | 22.2 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | vs Mississippi Valley State | W | 33 | 22.8 | |
| Feb 10, 2025 | vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff | W | 21 | 26.1 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | @Florida A&M | L | 21 | 22.8 | |
| Feb 17, 2025 | @Bethune-Cookman | W | 27 | 19.6 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | vsAlcorn State | W | 13 | 19.8 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | vsTexas Southern | W | 22 | 23.1 | |
| Mar 3, 2025 | vsPrairie View A&M | W | 12 | 25.3 | |
| Mar 6, 2025 | @Arkansas-Pine Bluff | W | 21 | 24.6 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | @Mississippi Valley State | W | 25 | 21.8 | |
| Mar 12, 2025 | vsFlorida A&M (neutral) | W | 29 | 23.1 | |
| Mar 14, 2025 | vsBethune-Cookman (neutral) | W | 23 | 20.5 | |
| Mar 15, 2025 | vsAlabama State (neutral) | L | 15 | 23.2 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | @ Illinois | L | 14 | 12.1 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | @ Louisville | L | 16 | 18.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 17 | 19.4 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | @ Auburn | L | 19 | 17.7 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | @ Arkansas | L | 11 | 17.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Winthrop | L | 8 | 23.3 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Louisiana | W | 5 | 22.4 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | @ Kennesaw State | L | 29 | 25.8 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | @ Houston | L | 5 | 18.9 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @ Northwestern | L | 23 | 17.7 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vs Hampton (neutral) | L | 16 | 24.0 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vs Norfolk State (neutral) | L | 16 | 24.1 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | @ TCU | L | 15 | 16.4 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsAlcorn State | W | 25 | 22.3 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @Alabama State | W | 32 | 22.2 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | @Alabama A&M | L | 31 | 20.4 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsPrairie View A&M | W | 20 | 24.7 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vsTexas Southern | W | 28 | 25.0 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Bethune-Cookman | L | 10 | 21.9 | |
| Jan 26, 2026 | @Florida A&M | W | 21 | 20.6 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsGrambling | L | 30 | 21.4 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | vsSouthern | L | 31 | 23.8 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @Mississippi Valley State | W | 35 | 25.0 | |
| Feb 9, 2026 | @Arkansas-Pine Bluff | L | 15 | 24.2 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | vsFlorida A&M | W | 19 | 22.3 | |
| Feb 16, 2026 | vsBethune-Cookman | W | 35 | 22.1 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @Alcorn State | L | 26 | 20.7 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @Prairie View A&M | L | 22 | 23.1 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Texas Southern | L | 21 | 23.8 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | vsArkansas-Pine Bluff | W | 30 | 24.9 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | vsMississippi Valley State | W | 50 | 25.8 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vsGrambling (neutral) | W | 26 | 20.8 | |
| Mar 11, 2026 | vsFlorida A&M (neutral) | L | 23 | 21.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.9 in 2024-25, plus 0.9 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% in 2024-25, 80% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.