Iowa State’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Iowa State was 2.6 points over at home and 6.9 points under away over its last 60 games, 26 games against 19. The plain averages are 84.6 and 70.6, a difference of 14.0.
Iowa State’s +9.6 at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
points a game over expected
at home
+2.6
away
−6.9
-2002040
A +9.6 difference in points over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
84.6
70.6
6080100120
A +14.0 difference in points at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2025 | vs Utah | W | 82 | 81.4 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | @ Texas Tech | W | 85 | 73.5 | |
| Jan 15, 2025 | vs Kansas | W | 74 | 76.0 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @ West Virginia | L | 57 | 70.8 | |
| Jan 21, 2025 | vs UCF | W | 108 | 86.6 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | @ Arizona State | W | 76 | 79.4 | |
| Jan 27, 2025 | @ Arizona | L | 75 | 76.9 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | vs Kansas State | L | 61 | 79.1 | |
| Feb 3, 2025 | @Kansas | L | 52 | 74.3 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | vs TCU | W | 82 | 75.9 | |
| Feb 11, 2025 | @UCF | W | 77 | 85.4 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | vs Cincinnati | W | 81 | 74.4 | |
| Feb 18, 2025 | vs Colorado | W | 79 | 79.6 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @ Houston | L | 59 | 63.7 | |
| Feb 25, 2025 | @ Oklahoma State | L | 68 | 82.0 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | vsArizona | W | 84 | 79.3 | |
| Mar 4, 2025 | vs BYU | L | 85 | 80.3 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | @Kansas State | W | 73 | 75.6 | |
| Mar 12, 2025 | vsCincinnati (neutral) | W | 76 | 73.2 | |
| Mar 13, 2025 | vsBYU (neutral) | L | 92 | 78.5 | |
| Mar 21, 2025 | vs Lipscomb (neutral) | W | 82 | 79.2 | |
| Mar 23, 2025 | vs Ole Miss (neutral) | L | 78 | 76.1 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | vs Fairleigh Dickinson | W | 88 | 89.2 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | vs Grambling | W | 102 | 86.3 | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | vs Mississippi State (neutral) | W | 96 | 84.6 | |
| Nov 17, 2025 | vs Stonehill | W | 96 | 86.1 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs St. John's (neutral) | W | 83 | 75.8 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vs Creighton (neutral) | W | 78 | 82.1 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs Syracuse (neutral) | W | 95 | 81.5 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | vs Alcorn State | W | 132 | 91.5 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 81 | 73.4 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | vs Iowa | W | 66 | 75.2 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs Eastern Illinois | W | 78 | 88.2 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs Long Beach State | W | 91 | 89.6 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vs Houston Christian | W | 89 | 86.2 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vsWest Virginia | W | 80 | 74.2 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @ Baylor | W | 70 | 81.7 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsOklahoma State | W | 83 | 90.1 | |
| Jan 13, 2026 | @Kansas | L | 63 | 73.9 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @Cincinnati | L | 70 | 73.5 | |
| Jan 20, 2026 | vsUCF | W | 87 | 85.2 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Oklahoma State | W | 84 | 87.5 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vsColorado | W | 97 | 85.7 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | @Kansas State | W | 95 | 85.4 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsBaylor | W | 72 | 84.1 | |
| Feb 10, 2026 | @TCU | L | 55 | 77.8 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | vsKansas | W | 74 | 75.9 | |
| Feb 16, 2026 | vsHouston | W | 70 | 69.3 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @BYU | L | 69 | 80.8 | |
| Feb 24, 2026 | @Utah | W | 75 | 83.4 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsTexas Tech | L | 73 | 77.9 | |
| Mar 2, 2026 | @Arizona | L | 57 | 73.7 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsArizona State | W | 86 | 83.6 | |
| Mar 11, 2026 | vsArizona State (neutral) | W | 91 | 82.0 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | vsTexas Tech (neutral) | W | 75 | 76.5 | |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vsArizona (neutral) | L | 80 | 73.8 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vs Tennessee State (neutral) | W | 108 | 88.9 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Kentucky (neutral) | W | 82 | 77.7 | |
| Mar 27, 2026 | vs Tennessee (neutral) | L | 62 | 73.4 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs Memphis (neutral) | L | 76 | NaN |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2024-25, plus 1.4 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 90% in 2024-25, 90% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.