Illinois State’s points of margin at home and away
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Through Illinois State’s game on Apr 2, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Illinois State was 5.6 points over at home and 3.8 points under away over its last 60 games, 25 games against 23. The plain averages are 14.0 and -3.0, a difference of 17.1.
Illinois State’s +9.4 at home vs away over expected ranks 2nd of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games through Apr 2, 2026.
points of margin a game over expected
at home
+5.6
away
−3.8
-20020
A +9.4 difference in points of margin over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
14.0
-3.0
-2002040
A +17.1 difference in points of margin at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs UIC | L | -6 | 5.8 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | @ Murray State | W | 6 | -2.5 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs Southern Illinois | W | 31 | 5.1 | |
| Jan 8, 2025 | @ Evansville | L | -18 | 5.8 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | vs Northern Iowa | L | -1 | 0.1 | |
| Jan 15, 2025 | @ Drake | L | -4 | -10.1 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | vs Missouri State | W | 6 | 8.5 | |
| Jan 21, 2025 | vs Indiana State | W | 4 | 7.6 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | @ Bradley | L | -4 | -7.0 | |
| Jan 29, 2025 | vs Belmont | W | 3 | 2.9 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | vs Valparaiso | W | 8 | 7.4 | |
| Feb 5, 2025 | @UIC | W | 2 | -0.8 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | @Northern Iowa | L | -3 | -5.9 | |
| Feb 12, 2025 | vsDrake | L | -7 | -3.8 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | @Indiana State | L | -9 | 2.3 | |
| Feb 19, 2025 | vsBradley | W | 11 | -1.8 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @Missouri State | W | 2 | 2.7 | |
| Feb 25, 2025 | @Southern Illinois | L | -9 | 1.5 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | vsEvansville | W | 9 | 10.2 | |
| Mar 6, 2025 | vsMissouri State (neutral) | W | 16 | 4.9 | |
| Mar 7, 2025 | vsBelmont (neutral) | L | -13 | 0.8 | |
| Mar 23, 2025 | vs Presbyterian (neutral) | W | 8 | 6.5 | |
| Mar 25, 2025 | vs Incarnate Word (neutral) | W | 5 | 5.8 | |
| Mar 26, 2025 | vs Cleveland State (neutral) | W | 11 | 2.0 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | @ Ohio | L | -4 | 8.7 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs Cornell | W | 11 | 9.0 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | vs USC (neutral) | L | -20 | -1.2 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ Long Beach State | W | 2 | 9.4 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vsRRockford | W | 45 | — | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 52 | 12.6 | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | vs Charlotte (neutral) | W | 10 | 6.8 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Furman (neutral) | W | 7 | 8.3 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | vs Eastern Kentucky | W | 11 | 18.0 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Chicago State | W | 42 | 21.5 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Utah State (neutral) | L | -5 | -9.8 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | @Southern Illinois | W | 7 | 0.3 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vsIndiana State | W | 20 | 10.7 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | @Drake | W | 17 | 4.3 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vsEvansville | W | 26 | 16.9 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @Valparaiso | L | -6 | 4.6 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsUIC | L | -4 | 5.8 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | @Indiana State | L | -5 | 6.9 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsBradley | W | 26 | 4.7 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | vsNorthern Iowa | W | 5 | 1.3 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Belmont | L | -11 | -4.3 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | @Murray State | W | 5 | 0.2 | |
| Feb 3, 2026 | vsSouthern Illinois | L | -4 | 6.4 | |
| Feb 6, 2026 | vsDrake | W | 10 | 10.1 | |
| Feb 9, 2026 | @Evansville | L | -8 | 13.6 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | vsValparaiso | W | 22 | 8.3 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | @UIC | L | -27 | 1.7 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | vsMurray State | W | 17 | 4.9 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @Bradley | L | -14 | 1.7 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | @Northern Iowa | W | 2 | -3.9 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vsBelmont | W | 7 | 0.0 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vsNorthern Iowa (neutral) | L | -22 | 0.2 | |
| Mar 18, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 21 | 8.3 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | W | 3 | -6.5 | |
| Mar 25, 2026 | @ Dayton | W | 6 | -4.8 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | vs Auburn (neutral) | L | -22 | -7.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024-25, plus 2.7 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 94% in 2024-25, 94% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Rockford has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.