Columbia’s points of margin in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Columbia was 5.9 points under in a conference game and NaN points over in a nonconference game over its last 60 games, 32 games against 24. The plain averages are -8.6 and 12.6, a difference of 21.2.
Columbia’s NaN in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 1st of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
points of margin a game over expected
A NaN difference in points of margin over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −21.2 difference in points of margin in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024 | vs Yale | L | -8 | -6.9 | |
| Mar 1, 2024 | @ Princeton | L | -14 | -14.1 | |
| Mar 2, 2024 | @ Pennsylvania | L | -12 | -3.7 | |
| Mar 9, 2024 | vs Cornell | L | -22 | -4.9 | |
| Nov 4, 2024 | @ Loyola Maryland | W | 3 | -1.2 | |
| Nov 6, 2024 | @ Villanova | W | 10 | -24.1 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Delaware State | W | 21 | 3.5 | |
| Nov 12, 2024 | vs Lehigh | W | 1 | 3.4 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Mercyhurst | W | 14 | 7.4 | |
| Nov 20, 2024 | @ Long Island University | W | 8 | -2.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Stony Brook | W | 19 | 6.1 | |
| Nov 25, 2024 | vs New Hampshire | W | 26 | 11.1 | |
| Dec 4, 2024 | @ UAlbany | L | -15 | -2.0 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vsMMerchant Marine | W | 49 | — | |
| Dec 9, 2024 | vsSSarah Lawrence | W | 46 | — | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Fairfield | W | 13 | 6.9 | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | @ Rutgers | L | -27 | -18.7 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | vsCornell | L | -11 | -6.3 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | vsYale | L | -4 | -12.8 | |
| Jan 20, 2025 | @Princeton | L | -4 | -9.0 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | @Pennsylvania | L | -15 | -0.4 | |
| Jan 31, 2025 | vs Harvard | L | -8 | 2.0 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | vs Dartmouth | L | -6 | -1.3 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | vs Brown | W | 2 | -1.1 | |
| Feb 14, 2025 | @Dartmouth | L | -22 | -6.2 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | @Harvard | L | -12 | -3.9 | |
| Feb 21, 2025 | @Brown | L | -25 | -5.2 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @Yale | L | -26 | -17.3 | |
| Feb 28, 2025 | vsPrinceton | L | -5 | -2.8 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | vsPennsylvania | L | -5 | 5.0 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | @Cornell | L | -19 | -11.9 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | @ New Haven | W | 18 | 6.9 | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | @ UConn | L | -27 | -25.0 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs UMass Lowell | W | 14 | 12.7 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vs Boston University | W | 5 | 7.9 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | @Lehigh | W | 15 | 3.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Longwood | W | 25 | 6.5 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | @Fairfield | W | 29 | 0.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsSSarah Lawrence | W | 48 | — | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | vs Hofstra | W | 2 | -4.5 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsUAlbany | W | 28 | 11.5 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | @Stony Brook | L | -4 | 0.9 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ California | L | -18 | -12.9 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ North Florida | W | 8 | 9.8 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vsPPenn State Abington | W | 55 | — | |
| Jan 5, 2026 | @Cornell | W | 5 | -4.4 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsHarvard | L | -25 | 3.6 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @Brown | L | -6 | 5.2 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | @Yale | L | -17 | -10.0 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Dartmouth | W | 10 | 2.2 | |
| Jan 30, 2026 | vsPennsylvania | W | 5 | 1.1 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsPrinceton | L | -12 | 8.3 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsCornell | L | -21 | 3.1 | |
| Feb 13, 2026 | @Pennsylvania | L | -9 | -3.4 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @Princeton | W | 10 | 1.2 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsDartmouth | L | -1 | 8.6 | |
| Feb 27, 2026 | vsBrown | W | 18 | 8.8 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsYale | L | -6 | -5.3 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | @Harvard | L | -10 | -3.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs Elon | L | -13 | NaN |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 2.9 in 2023-24, plus 3.0 in 2024-25, plus 2.7 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 94% in 2023-24, 94% in 2024-25, 94% in 2025-26, NaN% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Merchant Marine, Sarah Lawrence, Sarah Lawrence, Penn State Abington have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.