Belmont’s rebounds at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Belmont was 3.3 rebounds under at home and 4.1 rebounds over away in 2025-26, 14 games against 14. The plain averages are 30.7 and 35.1, a difference of 4.3.
Belmont’s −7.4 at home vs away over expected ranks 364th of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side in 2025-26.
rebounds a game over expected
at home
−3.3
away
+4.1
-10010
A −7.4 difference in rebounds over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
30.7
35.1
304050
A −4.3 difference in rebounds at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 6 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rebounds | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | vs Air Force | W | 21 | 32.2 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Tennessee State | W | 37 | 30.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Oral Roberts | W | 42 | 31.1 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vs Lipscomb | W | 41 | 34.5 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | vsFFisk | W | 57 | — | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs Saint Francis (neutral) | W | 30 | 33.2 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs Toledo (neutral) | W | 34 | 32.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ Charleston | W | 38 | 31.4 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | vs Richmond | L | 31 | 32.4 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 39 | 29.1 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs UIC | W | 27 | 30.6 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | @ Evansville | W | 33 | 31.4 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | @ UC Irvine | W | 41 | 31.8 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | @ Indiana State | L | 33 | 32.4 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vs Bradley | W | 32 | 33.2 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vs Southern Illinois | L | 29 | 31.4 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @ Northern Iowa | W | 31 | 29.4 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @ Drake | W | 39 | 32.9 | |
| Jan 13, 2026 | vs Valparaiso | W | 24 | 32.0 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @Southern Illinois | W | 37 | 30.3 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vs Illinois State | W | 23 | 30.5 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | @Valparaiso | W | 27 | 31.1 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vs Murray State | W | 28 | 32.1 | |
| Feb 3, 2026 | vsDrake | W | 24 | 34.5 | |
| Feb 6, 2026 | @UIC | W | 27 | 29.9 | |
| Feb 9, 2026 | @Bradley | L | 45 | 31.7 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | vsNorthern Iowa | W | 24 | 30.5 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | @Murray State | W | 34 | 31.1 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsIndiana State | W | 31 | 33.2 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | vsEvansville | W | 32 | 32.1 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @Illinois State | L | 25 | 29.7 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vsDrake (neutral) | L | 25 | 34.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 87% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Fisk has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.