Alabama State’s turnovers at home and away
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Through Alabama State’s game on Mar 9, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Alabama State was 2.8 turnovers over at home and 0.9 turnovers under away in 2025-26, 8 games against 19. The plain averages are 14.6 and 11.6, a difference of 2.9.
Alabama State’s +3.7 at home vs away over expected ranks 2nd of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side in 2025-26 through Mar 9.
turnovers a game over expected
at home
+2.8
away
−0.9
-505
A +3.7 difference in turnovers over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
14.6
11.6
1015
A +2.9 difference in turnovers at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | turnovers | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2025 | @ Florida State | L | 17 | 14.0 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | @ UAB | W | 11 | 12.2 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | vsVVirginia Lynchburg | W | 14 | — | |
| Nov 17, 2025 | @ Colorado | L | 11 | 12.0 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | @ Air Force | L | 10 | 11.3 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | vs IU Indianapolis (neutral) | W | 15 | 13.8 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs SIU Edwardsville (neutral) | L | 9 | 11.2 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 15 | 13.4 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ UT Martin | L | 13 | 12.9 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | @ Missouri | L | 7 | 12.8 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | @ Cincinnati | L | 10 | 13.4 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | @ Memphis | L | 15 | 13.9 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | @ Mississippi State | L | 12 | 10.7 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @ Mississippi Valley State | W | 16 | 11.8 | |
| Jan 5, 2026 | @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff | L | 11 | 12.1 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs Jackson State | L | 18 | 11.2 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | vs Alcorn State | W | 15 | 11.7 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vs Alabama A&M (neutral) | L | 19 | 10.2 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @ Prairie View A&M | W | 12 | 13.1 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | @ Texas Southern | L | 10 | 11.7 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vs Bethune-Cookman | L | 15 | 10.7 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | vs Florida A&M | W | 16 | 12.4 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @ Grambling | L | 11 | 13.5 | |
| Feb 9, 2026 | @ Southern | L | 17 | 13.0 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | vsArkansas-Pine Bluff | W | 11 | 11.6 | |
| Feb 16, 2026 | vsMississippi Valley State | W | 16 | 11.3 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | @Bethune-Cookman | L | 6 | 11.7 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @Florida A&M | L | 9 | 13.3 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Alabama A&M | W | 8 | 11.1 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | vsSouthern | L | 13 | 12.7 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | vsGrambling | L | 13 | 12.9 | |
| Mar 9, 2026 | vsAlcorn State (neutral) | L | 9 | 12.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.3 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 81% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Virginia Lynchburg has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.