Donovan Atwell’s points vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed guards, Donovan Atwell was 7.8 points over vs a ranked opponent and 1.6 points under vs an unranked opponent in 2026-27, 1 game against 2. The plain averages are 13.0 and 6.5, a difference of 6.5.
One game vs a ranked opponent is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
vs a ranked opponent
+7.8
vs an unranked opponent
−1.6
05
plain
13.0
6.5
510
The games
vs a ranked opponentvs an unranked opponent
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs Jackson State | W | 4 | 7.4 | |
| Nov 5, 2026 | vs Bethune-Cookman | W | 9 | 8.8 | |
| Nov 10, 2026 | vs Illinois | W | 13 | 5.2 |
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Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed guards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 3.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for guards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s guards’ points in his games, 15%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 93% of the difference the model predicts.