Wolverhampton Wanderers’ goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Wolverhampton Wanderers was 0.00 goals under at home and 0.34 goals under away in 2025-26, 19 games against 19. The plain averages are 1.00 and 0.42, a difference of 0.58.
Wolverhampton Wanderers’ +0.34 at home vs away over expected ranks 25th of the 103 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.00
away
−0.34
-101
A +0.34 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.00
0.42
0123
A +0.58 difference in goals at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 4 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2025 | vs Manchester City | L | 0 | 0.78 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | @ AFC Bournemouth | L | 0 | 0.84 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Everton | L | 2 | 0.92 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Newcastle United | L | 0 | 0.86 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Leeds United | L | 1 | 1.09 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Tottenham Hotspur | T | 1 | 0.85 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs Brighton & Hove Albion | T | 1 | 0.89 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Sunderland | L | 0 | 0.70 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs Burnley | L | 2 | 1.44 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Fulham | L | 0 | 0.77 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Chelsea | L | 0 | 0.87 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Crystal Palace | L | 0 | 1.02 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ Aston Villa | L | 0 | 0.74 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | vs Nottingham Forest | L | 0 | 1.03 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | vs Manchester United | L | 1 | 0.99 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @ Arsenal | L | 1 | 0.19 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Brentford | L | 0 | 1.06 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | @ Liverpool | L | 1 | 0.71 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | @Manchester United | T | 1 | 0.73 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vs West Ham United | W | 3 | 1.20 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @Everton | T | 1 | 0.70 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vsNewcastle United | T | 0 | 1.12 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Manchester City | L | 0 | 0.52 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsAFC Bournemouth | L | 0 | 1.10 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsChelsea | L | 1 | 1.09 | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | @Nottingham Forest | T | 0 | 0.77 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | vsArsenal | T | 2 | 0.41 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @Crystal Palace | L | 0 | 0.76 | |
| Feb 27, 2026 | vsAston Villa | W | 2 | 0.91 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | vsLiverpool | W | 2 | 0.93 | |
| Mar 16, 2026 | @Brentford | T | 2 | 0.71 | |
| Apr 10, 2026 | @West Ham United | L | 0 | 1.06 | |
| Apr 18, 2026 | @Leeds United | L | 0 | 0.88 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vsTottenham Hotspur | L | 0 | 1.15 | |
| May 2, 2026 | vsSunderland | T | 1 | 0.92 | |
| May 9, 2026 | @Brighton & Hove Albion | L | 0 | 0.67 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsFulham | T | 1 | 0.99 | |
| May 24, 2026 | @Burnley | T | 1 | 1.22 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.16 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.