West Ham United’s goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, West Ham United was 0.04 goals over at home and 0.14 goals under away in 2025-26, 19 games against 19. The plain averages are 1.42 and 1.00, a difference of 0.42.
West Ham United’s +0.18 at home vs away over expected ranks 43rd of the 103 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.04
away
−0.14
-1012
A +0.18 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.42
1.00
01234
A +0.42 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2025 | @ Sunderland | L | 0 | 1.10 | |
| Aug 22, 2025 | vs Chelsea | L | 1 | 1.49 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | @ Nottingham Forest | W | 3 | 1.04 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Tottenham Hotspur | L | 0 | 1.54 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Crystal Palace | L | 1 | 1.38 | |
| Sep 29, 2025 | @ Everton | T | 1 | 1.10 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Arsenal | L | 0 | 0.62 | |
| Oct 20, 2025 | vs Brentford | L | 0 | 1.45 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | @ Leeds United | L | 1 | 1.23 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs Newcastle United | W | 3 | 1.40 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Burnley | W | 3 | 1.79 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ AFC Bournemouth | T | 2 | 1.16 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs Liverpool | L | 0 | 1.40 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | @ Manchester United | T | 1 | 1.13 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ Brighton & Hove Albion | T | 1 | 1.02 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs Aston Villa | L | 2 | 1.31 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Manchester City | L | 0 | 0.92 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Fulham | L | 0 | 1.42 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vsBrighton & Hove Albion | T | 2 | 1.24 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @ Wolverhampton Wanderers | L | 0 | 1.50 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | vsNottingham Forest | L | 1 | 1.38 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @Tottenham Hotspur | W | 2 | 1.21 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vsSunderland | W | 3 | 1.23 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @Chelsea | L | 2 | 1.19 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @Burnley | W | 2 | 1.57 | |
| Feb 10, 2026 | vsManchester United | T | 1 | 1.39 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsAFC Bournemouth | T | 0 | 1.50 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Liverpool | L | 2 | 1.06 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | @Fulham | W | 1 | 1.12 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vsManchester City | T | 1 | 1.14 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | @Aston Villa | L | 0 | 1.13 | |
| Apr 10, 2026 | vsWolverhampton Wanderers | W | 4 | 1.59 | |
| Apr 20, 2026 | @Crystal Palace | T | 0 | 1.16 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vsEverton | W | 2 | 1.32 | |
| May 2, 2026 | @Brentford | L | 0 | 1.19 | |
| May 10, 2026 | vsArsenal | L | 0 | 0.88 | |
| May 17, 2026 | @Newcastle United | L | 1 | 1.21 | |
| May 24, 2026 | vsLeeds United | W | 3 | 1.41 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.16 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.