Real Oviedo’s goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Real Oviedo was 0.53 goals under at home and 0.17 goals over away in 2025-26, 19 games against 19. The plain averages are 0.47 and 0.89, a difference of 0.42.
Real Oviedo’s −0.70 at home vs away over expected ranks 100th of the 103 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.53
away
+0.17
-1012
A −0.70 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.
plain
0.47
0.89
0123
A −0.42 difference in goals at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 16 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2025 | @ Villarreal | L | 0 | 0.79 | |
| Aug 24, 2025 | vs Real Madrid | L | 0 | 0.71 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Real Sociedad | W | 1 | 1.20 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Getafe | L | 0 | 0.46 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ Elche | L | 0 | 0.88 | |
| Sep 25, 2025 | vs Barcelona | L | 1 | 0.77 | |
| Sep 30, 2025 | @ Valencia | W | 2 | 0.75 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Levante | L | 0 | 1.22 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vs Espanyol | L | 0 | 1.09 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Girona | T | 3 | 0.70 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | vs Osasuna | T | 0 | 0.99 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ Athletic Club | L | 0 | 0.87 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Rayo Vallecano | T | 0 | 0.86 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Atlético Madrid | L | 0 | 0.62 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vs Mallorca | T | 0 | 1.14 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ Sevilla | L | 0 | 0.94 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Celta Vigo | T | 0 | 0.96 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ Alavés | T | 1 | 0.81 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs Real Betis | T | 1 | 0.92 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @Osasuna | L | 2 | 0.65 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @Barcelona | L | 0 | 0.55 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsGirona | W | 1 | 1.05 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | vsAthletic Club | L | 1 | 1.10 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @Real Sociedad | T | 3 | 0.85 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsAtlético Madrid | L | 0 | 0.88 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | @Rayo Vallecano | L | 0 | 0.60 | |
| Mar 9, 2026 | @Espanyol | T | 1 | 0.79 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vsValencia | W | 1 | 1.06 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | @Levante | L | 2 | 0.88 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | vsSevilla | W | 1 | 1.16 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | @Celta Vigo | W | 3 | 0.57 | |
| Apr 23, 2026 | vsVillarreal | T | 1 | 1.01 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vsElche | L | 1 | 1.10 | |
| May 3, 2026 | @Real Betis | L | 0 | 0.70 | |
| May 10, 2026 | vsGetafe | T | 0 | 0.72 | |
| May 14, 2026 | @Real Madrid | L | 0 | 0.45 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsAlavés | L | 0 | 1.12 | |
| May 23, 2026 | @Mallorca | L | 0 | 0.88 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.16 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.