Real Betis’ shots conceded vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Real Betis was 1.7 shots under vs a top-half team and 1.8 shots over vs a bottom-half team in 2025-26, 14 games against 18. The plain averages are 12.0 and 13.3, a difference of 1.3. Expected was 2.2 shots higher vs a top-half team than vs a bottom-half team.
Real Betis’ −3.5 vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team over expected ranks 95th of the 96 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
shots conceded a game over expected
A −3.5 difference in shots conceded over expected vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is rare: shuffle which games were vs a top-half team and it comes up once in 100.
A −1.3 difference in shots conceded vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a top-half team and it comes up 4 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Shots against | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2025 | @ Elche | T | 6 | 12.6 | |
| Aug 22, 2025 | vs Alavés | W | 11 | 10.9 | |
| Aug 27, 2025 | @ Celta Vigo | T | 14 | 11.4 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | vs Athletic Club | L | 15 | 11.6 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @ Levante | T | 5 | 14.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | vs Real Sociedad | W | 11 | 11.1 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs Osasuna | W | 12 | 10.5 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ Espanyol | W | 14 | 13.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Villarreal | T | 7 | 13.7 | |
| Oct 27, 2025 | vs Atlético Madrid | L | 9 | 12.3 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs Mallorca | W | 14 | 9.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ Valencia | T | 17 | 12.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Girona | T | 11 | 10.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ Sevilla | W | 9 | 12.9 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Barcelona | L | 16 | 15.9 | |
| Dec 15, 2025 | @ Rayo Vallecano | T | 23 | 14.6 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs Getafe | W | 15 | 7.9 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ Real Madrid | L | 19 | 18.5 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @ Real Oviedo | T | 13 | 11.5 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsVillarreal | W | 9 | 11.0 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @Alavés | L | 17 | 13.3 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vsValencia | W | 15 | 10.3 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | @Atlético Madrid | W | 10 | 14.9 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | @Mallorca | W | 14 | 12.3 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsRayo Vallecano | T | 12 | 12.5 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vsSevilla | T | 14 | 10.0 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | @Getafe | L | 9 | 10.9 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vsCelta Vigo | T | 7 | 9.1 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | @Athletic Club | L | 11 | 14.4 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | vsEspanyol | T | 8 | 11.5 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | @Osasuna | T | 12 | 13.2 | |
| Apr 21, 2026 | @Girona | W | 9 | 12.8 | |
| Apr 24, 2026 | vsReal Madrid | T | 12 | 16.2 | |
| May 3, 2026 | vsReal Oviedo | W | 17 | 8.6 | |
| May 9, 2026 | @Real Sociedad | T | 14 | 13.6 | |
| May 12, 2026 | vsElche | W | 8 | 9.8 | |
| May 17, 2026 | @Barcelona | L | 15 | 18.6 | |
| May 23, 2026 | vsLevante | W | 15 | 11.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 88% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.