RB Leipzig’s expected goals at home and away
, ,
Through RB Leipzig’s game on Oct 10, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, RB Leipzig was 0.32 expected goals over at home and 0.20 expected goals under away over its last 75 games, 37 games against 38. The plain averages are 1.97 and 1.28, a difference of 0.69.
RB Leipzig’s +0.51 at home vs away over expected ranks 3rd of the 120 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games through Oct 10, 2026.
expected goals a game over expected
at home
+0.32
away
−0.20
-101
A +0.51 difference in expected goals over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
1.97
1.28
1234
A +0.69 difference in expected goals at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | xG | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2024 | @ 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | W | 1.37 | 1.34 | |
| Oct 19, 2024 | @ Mainz | W | 1.37 | 1.24 | |
| Oct 23, 2024 | vs Liverpool | L | 0.81 | 0.91 | |
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs SC Freiburg | W | 1.67 | 1.31 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Borussia Dortmund | L | 0.66 | 1.04 | |
| Nov 5, 2024 | @ Celtic | L | 1.33 | 1.29 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | T | 0.75 | 1.78 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ TSG Hoffenheim | L | 1.36 | 1.30 | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | @ Internazionale | L | 0.23 | 0.99 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs VfL Wolfsburg | L | 1.27 | 1.52 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | @ Holstein Kiel | W | 0.62 | 1.55 | |
| Dec 10, 2024 | vs Aston Villa | L | 1.72 | 1.11 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | W | 1.93 | 1.42 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | @ Bayern Munich | L | 0.47 | 0.64 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs Werder Bremen | W | 2.01 | 1.38 | |
| Jan 15, 2025 | @ VfB Stuttgart | L | 0.53 | 1.13 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @ VfL Bochum | T | 2.30 | 1.49 | |
| Jan 22, 2025 | vs Sporting CP | W | 2.13 | 1.16 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | vs Bayer Leverkusen | T | 0.60 | 1.17 | |
| Jan 29, 2025 | @ SK Sturm Graz | L | 1.35 | 1.82 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | @ 1. FC Union Berlin | T | 0.27 | 1.20 | |
| Feb 9, 2025 | vs St. Pauli | W | 1.37 | 1.23 | |
| Feb 14, 2025 | @ FC Augsburg | T | 1.23 | 1.18 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | vs1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | T | 1.72 | 1.52 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | vsMainz | L | 1.77 | 1.42 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | @SC Freiburg | T | 2.60 | 1.06 | |
| Mar 15, 2025 | vsBorussia Dortmund | W | 1.69 | 1.19 | |
| Mar 29, 2025 | @Borussia Mönchengladbach | L | 1.40 | 1.55 | |
| Apr 5, 2025 | vsTSG Hoffenheim | W | 1.44 | 1.50 | |
| Apr 11, 2025 | @VfL Wolfsburg | W | 1.35 | 1.32 | |
| Apr 19, 2025 | vsHolstein Kiel | T | 1.32 | 1.72 | |
| Apr 26, 2025 | @Eintracht Frankfurt | L | 0.36 | 1.30 | |
| May 3, 2025 | vsBayern Munich | T | 0.75 | 0.83 | |
| May 10, 2025 | @Werder Bremen | T | 1.46 | 1.20 | |
| May 17, 2025 | vsVfB Stuttgart | L | 1.28 | 1.30 | |
| Aug 22, 2025 | @Bayern Munich | L | 0.89 | 1.48 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | W | 2.46 | 2.19 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @Mainz | W | 1.21 | 1.80 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs FC Cologne | W | 3.82 | 1.87 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @VfL Wolfsburg | W | 1.67 | 1.74 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @Borussia Dortmund | T | 1.29 | 1.39 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Hamburg SV | W | 1.05 | 2.06 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @FC Augsburg | W | 1.94 | 1.79 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsVfB Stuttgart | W | 1.78 | 1.79 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @TSG Hoffenheim | L | 1.63 | 1.57 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vsWerder Bremen | W | 1.75 | 1.96 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @Borussia Mönchengladbach | T | 1.22 | 1.66 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsEintracht Frankfurt | W | 2.35 | 1.98 | |
| Dec 12, 2025 | @1. FC Union Berlin | L | 0.55 | 1.64 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsBayer Leverkusen | L | 2 | 1.71 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | vsSC Freiburg | W | 2.78 | 1.89 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsBayern Munich | L | 2.13 | 1.71 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | W | 1.74 | 1.94 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | @St. Pauli | T | 1.36 | 1.71 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsMainz | L | 2 | 2.05 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | @FC Cologne | W | 2.51 | 1.65 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | vsVfL Wolfsburg | T | 2.21 | 2.00 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsBorussia Dortmund | T | 2.37 | 1.62 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @Hamburg SV | W | 2.05 | 1.71 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsFC Augsburg | W | 1.88 | 2.09 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | @VfB Stuttgart | L | 0.73 | 1.55 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vsTSG Hoffenheim | W | 2.34 | 1.82 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | @Werder Bremen | W | 0.81 | 1.72 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vsBorussia Mönchengladbach | W | 2.35 | 1.89 | |
| Apr 18, 2026 | @Eintracht Frankfurt | W | 2.42 | 1.68 | |
| Apr 24, 2026 | vs1. FC Union Berlin | W | 3.25 | 1.79 | |
| May 2, 2026 | @Bayer Leverkusen | L | 1.17 | 1.46 | |
| May 9, 2026 | vsSt. Pauli | W | 2.27 | 1.95 | |
| May 16, 2026 | @SC Freiburg | L | 1.39 | 1.68 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsBorussia Mönchengladbach | W | 4.01 | 2.15 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Werder Bremen | L | 1.75 | 1.66 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | @ Como | L | 1.15 | 1.74 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsHamburg SV | W | 1.95 | 2.18 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @Bayer Leverkusen | L | 0.87 | 1.88 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsEintracht Frankfurt | W | 3.92 | 1.98 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.11 in 2024-25, plus 0.16 in 2025-26, plus 0.13 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 88% in 2024-25, 86% in 2025-26, 63% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 1, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 10.