PSV Eindhoven’s expected goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, PSV Eindhoven was 0.50 expected goals over at home and 0.43 expected goals under away over its last 31 games, 11 games against 12. The plain averages are 1.83 and 0.79, a difference of 1.05.
PSV Eindhoven’s +0.92 at home vs away over expected ranks 2nd of the 126 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 31 games.
expected goals a game over expected
at home
+0.50
away
−0.43
-101
A +0.92 difference in expected goals over expected at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 2 times in 100.
plain
1.83
0.79
123
A +1.05 difference in expected goals at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | xG | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2023 | @ Arsenal | L | — | — | |
| Oct 3, 2023 | vs Sevilla | T | — | — | |
| Oct 24, 2023 | @ Lens | T | — | — | |
| Nov 8, 2023 | vsLens | W | — | — | |
| Nov 29, 2023 | @Sevilla | W | — | — | |
| Dec 12, 2023 | vsArsenal | T | — | — | |
| Feb 20, 2024 | vs Borussia Dortmund | T | — | — | |
| Mar 13, 2024 | @Borussia Dortmund | L | — | — | |
| Sep 17, 2024 | @ Juventus | L | 0.76 | 1.30 | |
| Oct 1, 2024 | vs Sporting CP | T | 1.65 | 1.57 | |
| Oct 22, 2024 | @ Paris Saint-Germain | T | 0.33 | 1.13 | |
| Nov 5, 2024 | vs Girona | W | 2.20 | 1.55 | |
| Nov 27, 2024 | vs Shakhtar Donetsk | W | 3.15 | 1.34 | |
| Dec 10, 2024 | @ Brest | L | 0.04 | 1.66 | |
| Jan 21, 2025 | @ Red Star Belgrade | W | 1.02 | 1.76 | |
| Jan 29, 2025 | vs Liverpool | W | 1.18 | 1.22 | |
| Feb 11, 2025 | @Juventus | L | 1.01 | 1.27 | |
| Feb 19, 2025 | vsJuventus | W | 3.04 | 1.28 | |
| Mar 4, 2025 | vsArsenal | L | 0.80 | 1.10 | |
| Mar 12, 2025 | @Arsenal | T | 1.13 | 0.85 | |
| Sep 16, 2025 | vs Union St.-Gilloise | L | 2.10 | 1.51 | |
| Oct 1, 2025 | @ Bayer Leverkusen | T | 0.55 | 1.25 | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | vs Napoli | W | 2.48 | 1.09 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @ Olympiacos | T | 0.53 | 1.34 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | @Liverpool | W | 0.88 | 0.81 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | vs Atlético Madrid | L | 2.18 | 1.38 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | @ Newcastle United | L | 0.46 | 1.09 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | vs Bayern Munich | L | 0.79 | 1.55 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vsShakhtar Donetsk | T | 0.60 | 1.12 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ RB Leipzig | L | 0.67 | 1.68 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ FC Porto | W | 2.05 | 0.40 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.00 in 2023-24, plus 0.11 in 2024-25, plus 0.16 in 2025-26, plus 0.13 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% in 2023-24, 88% in 2024-25, 86% in 2025-26, 63% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Arsenal, Sevilla, Lens, Lens, Sevilla, Arsenal, Borussia Dortmund, Borussia Dortmund have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.