Pisa’s goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Pisa was 0.53 goals under at home and 0.17 goals over away in 2025-26, 19 games against 19. The plain averages are 0.47 and 0.89, a difference of 0.42. All 3 games without Michel Aebischer were away.
Pisa’s −0.70 at home vs away over expected ranks 99th of the 103 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.53
away
+0.17
-101
A −0.70 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.
plain
0.47
0.89
0123
A −0.42 difference in goals at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 19 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2025 | @ Atalanta | T | 1 | 0.55 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs AS Roma | L | 0 | 0.75 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vs Udinese | L | 0 | 1.09 | |
| Sep 22, 2025 | @ Napoli | L | 2 | 0.54 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs Fiorentina | T | 0 | 1.13 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ Bologna | L | 0 | 0.79 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Hellas Verona | T | 0 | 1.34 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | @ AC Milan | T | 2 | 0.48 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | vs Lazio | T | 0 | 0.92 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ Torino | T | 2 | 1.06 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Cremonese | W | 1 | 1.22 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | @ Sassuolo | T | 2 | 0.79 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs Internazionale | L | 0 | 0.80 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | vs Parma | L | 0 | 1.03 | |
| Dec 12, 2025 | @ Lecce | L | 0 | 0.85 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ Cagliari | T | 2 | 0.84 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Juventus | L | 0 | 0.84 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @ Genoa | T | 1 | 0.84 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | vs Como | L | 0 | 0.71 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @Udinese | T | 2 | 0.74 | |
| Jan 16, 2026 | vsAtalanta | T | 1 | 0.81 | |
| Jan 23, 2026 | @Internazionale | L | 2 | 0.46 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsSassuolo | L | 1 | 1.09 | |
| Feb 6, 2026 | @Hellas Verona | T | 0 | 1.08 | |
| Feb 13, 2026 | vsAC Milan | L | 1 | 0.78 | |
| Feb 23, 2026 | @Fiorentina | L | 0 | 0.86 | |
| Mar 2, 2026 | vsBologna | L | 0 | 1.05 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | @Juventus | L | 0 | 0.58 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vsCagliari | W | 3 | 1.06 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | @Como | L | 0 | 0.45 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | vsTorino | L | 0 | 1.40 | |
| Apr 10, 2026 | @AS Roma | L | 0 | 0.49 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vsGenoa | L | 1 | 1.10 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | @Parma | L | 0 | 0.77 | |
| May 1, 2026 | vsLecce | L | 1 | 1.07 | |
| May 10, 2026 | @Cremonese | L | 0 | 1.00 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsNapoli | L | 0 | 0.88 | |
| May 23, 2026 | @Lazio | L | 1 | 0.61 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.16 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.