Paris Saint-Germain’s goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Paris Saint-Germain was 0.93 goals over at home and 0.62 goals over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 7. The plain averages are 3.20 and 2.71, a difference of 0.49. Both league games after a Champions League game were away.
Paris Saint-Germain’s +0.32 at home vs away over expected ranks 20th of the 42 teams with 5 games on each side this season.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.93
away
+0.62
02
A +0.32 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
3.20
2.71
246
A +0.49 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | @ Stade Rennais | T | 2 | 2.42 | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | @ Lille | T | 2 | 1.97 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs AS Monaco | L | 1 | 2.17 | |
| Sep 9, 2026 | vs Slovan Bratislava | W | 6 | 2.82 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ Brest | W | 1 | 2.31 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ Marseille | W | 2 | 2.08 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Le Mans | W | 3 | 2.52 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @ Manchester City | W | 4 | 1.47 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Strasbourg | W | 3 | 2.25 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs Barcelona | W | 4 | 1.89 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vs Lyon | W | 2 | 1.93 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @ Le Havre AC | W | 5 | 2.18 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026-27 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.21 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 44% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.