Metz’s goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Metz was 0.31 goals under at home and 0.08 goals over away in 2025-26, 17 games against 17. The plain averages are 0.88 and 1.00, a difference of 0.12. Expected was 0.27 goals higher at home than away.
Metz’s −0.39 at home vs away over expected ranks 91st of the 103 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.31
away
+0.08
02
A −0.39 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.88
1.00
01234
A −0.12 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2025 | vs Strasbourg | L | 0 | 1.26 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | @ Lyon | L | 0 | 0.83 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | @ Paris FC | L | 2 | 0.96 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vs Angers | T | 1 | 1.20 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ AS Monaco | L | 2 | 1.06 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs Le Havre AC | T | 0 | 1.16 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Marseille | L | 0 | 1.25 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ Toulouse | L | 0 | 0.96 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ Lille | L | 1 | 0.71 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | vs Lens | W | 2 | 0.90 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ Nantes | W | 2 | 0.98 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs Nice | W | 2 | 1.45 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ Brest | L | 2 | 1.07 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Stade Rennais | L | 0 | 1.33 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ AJ Auxerre | L | 1 | 0.85 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Paris Saint-Germain | L | 2 | 0.75 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ Lorient | T | 1 | 1.03 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @Strasbourg | L | 1 | 0.95 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vsLyon | L | 2 | 1.00 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | @Angers | L | 0 | 0.98 | |
| Feb 6, 2026 | vsLille | T | 0 | 1.02 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | vsAJ Auxerre | L | 1 | 1.11 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @Paris Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 0.57 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vsBrest | L | 0 | 1.43 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | @Lens | L | 0 | 0.73 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vsToulouse | L | 3 | 1.08 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | @Stade Rennais | T | 0 | 1.07 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | vsNantes | T | 0 | 1.34 | |
| Apr 10, 2026 | @Marseille | L | 1 | 0.95 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vsParis FC | L | 1 | 1.27 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | @Le Havre AC | T | 4 | 0.70 | |
| May 2, 2026 | vsAS Monaco | L | 1 | 1.36 | |
| May 10, 2026 | vsLorient | L | 0 | 1.34 | |
| May 17, 2026 | @Nice | T | 0 | 1.28 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.16 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.