Mallorca’s goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Mallorca was 0.24 goals over at home and 0.32 goals under away in 2025-26, 19 games against 19. The plain averages are 1.63 and 0.84, a difference of 0.79.
Mallorca’s +0.56 at home vs away over expected ranks 15th of the 103 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.24
away
−0.32
02
A +0.56 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 10 times in 100.
plain
1.63
0.84
01234
A +0.79 difference in goals at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 2 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2025 | vs Barcelona | L | 0 | 1.25 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs Celta Vigo | T | 1 | 1.35 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Real Madrid | L | 1 | 0.85 | |
| Sep 15, 2025 | @ Espanyol | L | 2 | 1.19 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs Atlético Madrid | T | 1 | 1.28 | |
| Sep 24, 2025 | @ Real Sociedad | L | 0 | 1.41 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Alavés | W | 1 | 1.51 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Athletic Club | L | 1 | 1.27 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Sevilla | W | 3 | 1.25 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs Levante | T | 1 | 1.62 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ Real Betis | L | 0 | 1.14 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs Getafe | W | 1 | 1.12 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Villarreal | L | 1 | 1.18 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Osasuna | T | 2 | 1.34 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @ Real Oviedo | T | 0 | 1.36 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Elche | W | 3 | 1.45 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | @ Valencia | T | 1 | 1.23 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vs Girona | L | 1 | 1.49 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @ Rayo Vallecano | L | 1 | 1.00 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsAthletic Club | W | 3 | 1.46 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @Atlético Madrid | L | 0 | 1.05 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | vsSevilla | W | 4 | 1.47 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @Barcelona | L | 0 | 0.99 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | vsReal Betis | L | 1 | 1.36 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @Celta Vigo | L | 0 | 1.14 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsReal Sociedad | L | 0 | 1.68 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | @Osasuna | T | 2 | 1.08 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vsEspanyol | W | 2 | 1.45 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | @Elche | L | 1 | 1.28 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | vsReal Madrid | W | 2 | 1.07 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vsRayo Vallecano | W | 3 | 1.17 | |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vsValencia | T | 1 | 1.49 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | @Alavés | L | 1 | 1.25 | |
| May 1, 2026 | @Girona | W | 1 | 1.22 | |
| May 10, 2026 | vsVillarreal | T | 1 | 1.44 | |
| May 13, 2026 | @Getafe | L | 1 | 0.86 | |
| May 17, 2026 | @Levante | L | 0 | 1.40 | |
| May 23, 2026 | vsReal Oviedo | W | 3 | 1.49 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.16 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.